Battery: Leading companies continue to transfer profits to downstream companies, but unit profits remain stable, and global market share is expected to continue to increase. CATL's valuation will be 20 or 17 times in 2023 or 24, which is extremely cost-effective.

Diaphragm: The production of new entrants is less than expected. Grassroots research shows that the production progress of second-tier new entrant diaphragm plants will continue to be lower than expected in 2024. The market has overreacted to the deterioration of the diaphragm industry structure, and the bottom of the top diaphragm companies has been established. Enjie expects Q3 unit profit to reach the bottom of 5 cents, and will increase its share through price cuts and online coating. The unit profit of Xingyuan Materials Q3 has returned to more than 3 cents. With the increasing volume of wet method, the unit profit has steadily increased, and the wet method is mainly for overseas customers, so the price is stable.

Positive pole: The production capacity construction of leading companies has slowed down, and profits per ton have stabilized! The processing fee for iron lithium containing iron phosphate will drop by about 1,000-2,000 yuan in the second half of the year, and is currently about 20,000 yuan. There has been no further price adjustment in the lower reaches of the industry chain. If Yuneng reduces costs and increases volume, the company is expected to obtain a net profit of 3,000 yuan +, and the German side is expected to become a regular company and increase the volume of manganese-ferrolithium, which may rewrite the industry pattern.

Negative pole: Domestic production capacity construction may be canceled or postponed, and the main production capacity expansion plans of leading companies are nearing completion. In terms of profitability, the inventory disturbance has basically ended. Zhongke turned profitable in the third quarter, and the overcharging and negative poles slightly exceeded expectations. Putai Laishangtai has consumed most of its high-priced inventory in Q3, profits have bottomed out in Q3, and Q4 is expected to rebound.

Electrolyte: The pace of production capacity expansion has slowed down. After Tianci went into production at the end of Q3 with 110,000 tons, it will no longer expand production. Since 6f entered September, the net profit per ton of DFD of the leading company is about 10,000, and TJGF is about 5,000-6,000. Second-tier companies are losing money, and the long-term planning of the leading company is postponed; tccl has obvious cost advantages. The electrolyte is expected to be cleared next yearStructural parts: The competitive landscape is the best, with high concentration of leaders. New entrants in the past two years have been lower than expected, and competition barriers are much higher than market expectations. Leading companies have a global presence and are expected to start making profits overseas next year;

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